All that building about to hit brakes
Report shows a slowdown over next 2 decades
Sunday, January 30, 2005
BY AL FRANK
Star-Ledger Staff

The boom is over.

With most suitable land already developed, or off-limits due to environmental
restrictions, government preservation programs or the Highlands law,
construction in Morris County is expected to slow markedly during the next 20
years, according to a report by the county's planning board.

About 14,000 units of housing are expected to be built by 2025 -- which comes to
an average of 700 units per year, compared with the 1,800 units built annually
from 1990 to 2000. If the projections hold, the increase translates to an annual
rate of about 8 percent by 2025, compared with 12 percent annually from 1990 to
2000.

"This will be the lowest rate of growth in the county since 1950," the draft
report said.

The report also forecasts a slowing in commercial and office construction. A
preliminary tally showed the 39 Morris communities will add 17.1 million square
feet over the next 20 years, or less than 1 million square feet per year. That
contrasts with the average 7 million square feet per year built from 1987 to 1990.

It's a radical change in a county that has paced the state in growth. Since
1950, the population of Morris swelled 86 percent to 470,212, compared with 74
percent statewide.

"You're not going to have the typical, cookie-cutter subdivision anymore," said
Christine Marion, assistant planning director, who is assembling data for a
report to be delivered to the freeholders next month. "You're getting close to
the end of suburbanization."

Submitted by each community to the board as part of the preparations for
revising the state development plan, the data suggest what's on the horizon for
Morris County 30 years after interstates brought a construction surge that saw
farms turned into subdivisions and office parks planted around almost every
interchange.

But the brakes are now on. The amount of available land has dwindled and
government programs aimed at preserving farmland and other open space as well as
restrictions imposed by the Highlands law. The latter, which affects 32 towns,
has put into question pending applications for major projects in towns such as
Mount Olive, Washington Township and Jefferson.

How much developable land remains is still to be quantified, although the
county's open space and farmland preservation fund has saved 10,900 acres since
1993.

"Outside preservation areas, most towns approach zero in terms of developable
land," Marion said.

The findings were no surprise to James Hughes, who has been charting New Jersey
trends for 40 years.

"I think Morris, Somerset and Hunterdon all are going to be growing slower, and
what we'll see is a revitalization of older suburbs," said Hughes, dean of the
Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University.

In addition to the land limitations cited by the draft report, the constraints
on area highways are another.

"State highways like (Routes) 202, 206, 46 and the like supported the growth in
the '50s and '60s and then that system was at capacity," Hughes said. "Growth in
the '80s and '90s was linked to the completion of interstates like 287, 280 and
80 that are rapidly approaching capacity.

"You're not going to build an 'Interstate Two' and probably will have a
difficult time widening any of the ones we have so, almost by definition, as
congestion grows, that is going to brake development," he said.

While preserving environmentally sensitive land is laudable, Hughes said that
means what is left for development will increase in value. That, in turn, will
likely boost housing prices.

Historically, Morris County has suffered from a shortage of affordable housing
-- 10,000 apartments and homes, according to a United Way study last year -- and
the county's data suggest the situation will not be cured soon. The fewer homes
that will be built will likely be high-end homes, Hughes said.

The Council on Affordable Housing is revising municipal goals to require even
commercial developers to contribute to local affordable housing shortfalls. "But
if you don't grow, there's no obligation, or if there's limited growth, there is
no obligation," Marion said.

Taking out a county map, she points out huge open --but mostly protected --
areas. The largest swaths comprise wetlands, county parks and tracts surrounding
the Newark and Jersey City reservoirs and well fields controlled by the
Southeast Morris and Morris County municipal utilities authorities.

As a result, Morris County may wind up retaining the look it has now, said
Marion, who joined the planning board staff in 1984.

Older towns such as Butler, Dover, Morristown, Netcong, Riverdale and Wharton,
which have sewers and other infrastructure, are likely to see redevelopment that
focuses on their downtown business districts and includes the construction of
high-end apartments for dual-income couples or empty nesters.

Out west, in Washington and Chester townships where the most open land exists,
agriculture will continue under the farmland preservation program. Meanwhile,
large-lot zoning will restrict most new construction to huge homes, Marion said.

One question mark is the 229-acres on Canfield Avenue in Mine Hill, where a
builder wants to erect 700 homes but the town would like to buy because it deems
the land environmentally sensitive.

Elsewhere, at 2,405 units, Rockaway Township, is expected to see the most
housing construction. Meanwhile, Parsippany, which is Morris County's most
populous community, expects to add a mere 503 homes -- and 3 million square feet
of office and commercial space to the 21 1/2 million square feet it already has.

Neither town's mayor was surprised.

"We're pretty much built out," said Mimi Letts, who presides over a
25-square-mile township that saw its population more than triple since 1950 to
50,000 residents.

There is still room in 48-square-mile Rockaway Township, which saw its
population swell five-fold since 1950 to 23,000 residents. But it is using
zoning laws to steer development to areas around the Rockaway Townsquare mall
and away from aquifers and the Split Rock and Charlottesburg reservoirs.

"We recognize that we're stewards of a lot of water that supplies 11 million
people downstream," said Mayor Louis Sceusi.

At the same time, he said the township is interested in preserving its diverse
neighborhoods -- ranging from commercial to rural -- and not increasing the
population, which would mean more municipal services and schools.

"It used to be years ago, you wanted development and thought all these housing
developments were great," Sceusi said. "But when you actually started looking at
the cost, towns don't make a lot of money from it."

Al Frank can be reached at (973) 539-7910 or afrank@starledger.com.


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